Urad Market Analysis: Current Trends and Future Outlook

Current Market Situation

1. Prices:

Global: Dropped by $5-10 per tonne this week
India: ₹45,000-70,000 ($536-833) per tonne
Brazil to India: $1,075/tonne for October-November delivery (down $5)
Myanmar: $970/tonne for fair average quality, $1,070 for October-November delivery to India

Bar graph showing the prices of black matpe (Urad) in 2024, comparing prices in India (low), India (high), Brazil to India, Myanmar (fair), and Myanmar to India in $/tonne

2. Indian Kharif Crop:

Prices lower than the minimum support price of ₹74,000/tonne due to poor quality
Farmers selling entire crop due to rain damage in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka

Factors Affecting the Market

1. Supply Concerns:

Estimated 30% crop damage from September rains
Kharif acreage down to 30.73 lakh hectares from 32.60 lakh hectares last year
Madhya Pradesh acreage decreased to 9.79 lakh hectares from 13.90 lakh hectares

Bar graph illustrating the comparison of urad dal acreage between 2023 and 2024, showcasing both total acreage and Madhya Pradesh acreage

2. Myanmar Supply:

Small crop usually arriving in December not available this year
New crop expected in February
Current stocks only 200,000 tonnes

3. Demand:

Currently slack after Diwali (Deepavali)

4. Weather Outlook:

India Meteorological Department forecasts above-normal rainfall for October-December
Potential impact on rabi black matpe crop

Radar graph showing the factors affecting the urad (black matpe) market in 2024, including Myanmar supply, acreage reduction, crop damage, demand fluctuations, and weather forecasts

Future Outlook

1. Short-term:

Current price drop may be misleading
Potential for price increase from December due to tight market balance

2. Medium-term:

Prices beyond December dependent on:

Rabi crop performance
Weather conditions in India and Myanmar
Soil moisture and reservoir levels (currently favourable)

3. Factors to Watch:

Weather developments in the Bay of Bengal (potential impact on Myanmar)
Actual crop damage assessment in India
Myanmar's export volumes

Conclusion

While current urad prices show a downward trend, various factors suggest potential price firmness in the coming weeks. The market faces supply challenges due to crop damage and reduced acreage in India, coupled with limited availability from Myanmar. Weather conditions will play a crucial role in determining future price trends, particularly for the rabi crop. Traders and consumers should closely monitor these factors for a more accurate market outlook beyond December.