IGC Outlook: Global Grains Estimate Indicates a Bearish Market Trend
IGC Outlook on Global Grains Production
The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected that global grains production will rise by 97 million tonnes (mt) to 2,425 mt in the 2025–26 season (September–August). This marks a nine-year high with a 4% increase compared to the previous year.
The surge is primarily driven by a 59 mt jump in maize output and a 27 mt rise in wheat production, both reaching record levels.
IGC Outlook on Global Grains Consumption
Despite higher production, the consumption of grains is also expected to hit new highs, driven by strong demand for food, feed, and industrial uses. However, global ending stocks are forecast to rise by 25 mt to 614 mt, highlighting a supply-heavy market scenario.
IGC Outlook on Global Grains Trade
The IGC trade estimates indicate that total grains trade will expand, led by wheat at 440 mt, an increase of 16 mt from the previous season.
- Wheat trade: Up by 11 mt to 207 mt
- Maize trade: Up by 4 mt to 191 mt
- Rice trade: Up by 1 mt to 60 mt
IGC Outlook on Wheat, Maize, and Rice Stocks
Wheat and maize are forecast to hit record production levels at 827 mt and 1,297 mt, respectively. Wheat consumption is projected at 820 mt, leaving ending stocks at 73 mt, while maize stocks are seen at nearly 300 mt.
Rice production is also forecast at a record 542 mt, slightly above last year’s 541 mt. Consumption is pegged at 540 mt, while carryover stocks are expected to rise by 2 mt to 187 mt.
IGC Outlook on Global Grain Prices
With production, trade, and stock levels all rising, the IGC outlook remains bearish for the global grains market. Coupled with crude oil prices around $65 a barrel, grain prices are likely to remain flat in the near term.
Conclusion
The IGC global grains outlook paints a clear picture of oversupply and stabilizing prices. Record harvests in maize, wheat, and rice will keep the market well supplied, even as consumption continues to grow. For commodity traders and agri-businesses, this signals a period of price stability and strategic inventory planning as the world navigates a high-production cycle.