From Fields to Markets: Indian Pulses and Sugar Outlook

Tur (Pigeon Pea) Market: Volatility Amid Rainfall Concerns

• Price Trend: Tur prices in India show volatility after a recent decline of ₹25,000 ($300) per tonne
• Current Price Range: ₹1,12,000 - ₹1,13,500 per tonne in Kalburgi APMC, Karnataka
• Minimum Support Price: ₹75,500 per tonne set by the Indian government

Factors Affecting the Market:

1. Heavy rainfall in key growing states (Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat)
2. Fears of crop damage due to waterlogging and potential root rot disease
3. Area under tur cultivation increased by 12% to 45.78 lakh hectares as of September 1, 2024

Outlook:

• Government officials view rains as beneficial
• Indian Grains and Pulses Association yet to assess crop condition
• Final assessment pending government's kharif crop estimate by month-end

Chickpea Market: Bearish Outlook Due to Australian Crop

• Current Indian Price: Average of ₹90,000 ($1,070) per tonne
• Price in Key Centers: Above ₹80,000 per tonne in Delhi

Market Drivers:

1. Australian chickpea production estimated at 1.33 million tonnes (70% increase over 10-year average)
2. Australia's planted area at 1.9 million acres (8-year high)
3. Indian production down 6.5% at 11.57 million tonnes

Market Response:

• India reduced import duty on chickpeas to zero
• Tanzanian and Australian chickpeas priced below $900 and $925 per tonne in Mumbai

Sugar Market: Potential Export Delays and Ethanol Focus

• Export Outlook: India unlikely to allow sugar exports before December 2024
• Production Estimate: 33.31 million tonnes for 2024-25 season (starting October 1)
• Opening Stock: Expected to be higher at 9 million tonnes

Key Considerations:

1. Government focus on meeting ethanol production targets
2. Potential 5% price increase for mills supplying ethanol
3. Global sugar market remains elevated due to weather issues in Brazil

Industry Developments:

• Global firms like Olam setting up ethanol refineries in India
• Government considering allowing mills to decide sugarcane diversion for ethanol

Wheat Market: Rebounding Prices and Production Estimates

• Price Trend: Rebounded from a four-year low of $5.2 per bushel in July
• Global Production Estimate: 791.4 million tonnes for 2024-25 (up from 788.5 million tonnes)

Market Factors:

1. Tightening global supplies
2. Projections of stocks dropping to a 9-year low
3. Potential impact of La Nina weather event (not expected before December-end)

Key Statistics:

• Global supplies: 1,106.5 million tonnes (5 million tonnes lower than last year)
• Global trade: 199.4 million tonnes (8 million tonnes lower)
• Closing stocks: 314.4 million tonnes (slightly lower than last year's 315.1 million tonnes)

Outlook:

• Wheat flour prices expected to be 6.6% lower in 2024 (USDA Economic Research Service)
• Closing stock projections raised due to large inventories in China and larger-than-expected US crop