El Niño Signals Could Mark a Turning Point for the Global Pulses Market

The pulses market has entered 2026 on a weak footing, but weather signals are offering cautious optimism for the second half of the year. Meteorological forecasts pointing to the possible emergence of El Niño conditions during the July–September period suggest that the prolonged bearish phase may be nearing its end.

El Niño typically brings drier-than-normal conditions to the Indian subcontinent, a risk that market participants are taking seriously after the sharp impact seen in 2023. Any rainfall deficit would directly affect India’s kharif pulses crop. As the world’s largest producer, consumer, and importer of pulses, even a modest disruption in India’s output could significantly alter global trade flows.

A weaker kharif crop would likely push India to increase imports in the latter half of 2026. Weather developments will also need close monitoring in Pakistan and Myanmar, both critical suppliers of pigeon pea and black matpe.

Beyond weather, several supply-side questions remain unanswered:

• Will farmers in Australia, Canada, the US, Russia, and parts of Africa continue planting pulses after a year of weak farmgate prices?
• Brazilian growers had earlier indicated a shift away from black matpe due to lower returns. Whether this materialises will be key.
• African planting decisions for pigeon pea will influence global availability.
• At the same time, La Niña risks, which can cause dry spells in North America and parts of Africa, could further complicate supply prospects.

These factors together will shape market direction through the rest of 2026.

Ample Near-Term Supply Keeps Prices Under Pressure

For now, the market remains weighed down by strong production. Canada has harvested larger-than-expected lentil, pea, and chickpea crops, adding to global supplies. Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the US are also reporting good harvests, ensuring near-term abundance.

Russia, in particular, has emerged as a formidable competitor. Its lentils and peas are being offered at sharply competitive prices, driven by Moscow’s need for foreign exchange amid ongoing sanctions. Russian supplies to key markets like India and China have altered pricing benchmarks. Any resolution of the Ukraine conflict would significantly change this competitive landscape.

Yellow Peas: A Key Market Indicator

The behaviour of yellow pea prices will be critical in determining whether the market is bottoming out. In India, yellow peas are widely used as substitutes for pigeon pea and black matpe in the HoReCa sector.

Currently:

• Russia is offering yellow peas to China at around $305 per tonne
• Canadian offers are near $310
• Russia, Ukraine, and Canada are offering to India at about $345

While prices are unlikely to fall below $300 per tonne, signs of stability point to a possible reversal of the downtrend.

Prices Show Signs of Finding a Floor

Across pulses, prices appear to have established support levels:

• Black matpe is trading below $900 per tonne, with Brazil at $895 and Myanmar at $830 for premium quality
• Desi chickpeas have stabilised near $500 per tonne, with Australia offering at that level to India
• Green lentils are quoted at $585 from Russia and $635 from Canada
• Pigeon peas are holding above $525 per tonne, with African origins between $540 and $590
• Red lentils from Australia and Canada are priced between $510 and $525 per tonne

These levels suggest downside risk is now limited.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism, Policy Risks Remain

Two broad conclusions stand out:

• Most pulse prices appear to have found a floor, limiting further downside
• The possibility of El Niño later in 2026 introduces upside risk

However, any sharp rally is likely to face resistance. Rising food prices could trigger policy interventions, especially from India, where inflation management remains a priority.

Overall, while near-term supplies remain comfortable, weather risks and planting decisions could reshape the pulses market in the second half of 2026, potentially bringing an end to the current bearish cycle.