Cashew Prices Signal Bullish Recovery as RCN Tightens

Cashew prices have moved from early-year lows into a controlled recovery, with the global market shifting to a firm but cautious footing through June 2026. Kernel values bottomed in the first quarter and have since edged higher, supported less by demand strength than by a tightening raw material base. The result is a market caught between abundant near-term offers and a structurally smaller crop.

RCN Supply Tightens Across Key Origins

RCN supply has emerged as the dominant force shaping the 2026 market. West Africa's harvest is tracking 200,000 to 250,000 tons below last year's record, according to trade estimates, with the shortfall concentrated across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Benin.

In Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, tracked arrivals reached roughly 767,000 tons by early April, but local processors had already absorbed close to 637,000 tons. That left limited volume for exporters and intensified competition for remaining stocks.

Farmgate prices in Ivory Coast held near 400 CFA per kilogram, a reduction of about 6 percent from the prior season, though buyers faced added costs for cleaning and drying after inconsistent post-harvest handling. Tanzanian raw nuts were quoted around 1,700 to 1,760 dollars per ton on a 51 to 53 pound outturn basis.

RCN supply constraints extend beyond West Africa

Parallel tightness across other tree nuts, including almonds, pistachios and walnuts, has limited substitution away from cashews. This cross-complex pressure has reinforced the floor under raw nut values even as headline demand stays subdued.

Kernel Demand Stays Cautious in Key Markets

Kernel demand has not kept pace with the supply story. In India, weak domestic offtake has weighed heavily, with the sweets and confectionery channels yet to deliver a decisive recovery.

The strain on Indian processing has been acute. Earlier in the cycle, more than 300 processing units in Andhra Pradesh suspended operations for two weeks amid low domestic prices, underscoring the margin pressure facing standard-grade processors.

European buyers, meanwhile, have operated in a comfortable position. Stocks remain ample, the bias for broken kernels is soft, and the market favors buyers willing to wait for dips rather than chase offers.

West Africa Crop Shortfall Shapes the Outlook

The West Africa crop deficit remains the pivotal variable for the months ahead. While peak harvest typically lifts availability and pressures prices, the smaller 2026 crop has narrowed that seasonal cushion.

Historically, raw nut prices peak between July and October during the lean season. With supply already constrained, that seasonal tightening could prove more pronounced this year if second-crop prospects disappoint.

West Africa crop quality adds further uncertainty

Rainfall during harvest has complicated drying and sorting in several origins, raising localized quality concerns. Logistics bottlenecks, including port congestion at Lagos, have added further friction to export flows.

Vietnam Exports Reflect Higher Input Costs

Vietnam exports have begun to absorb and pass on the elevated cost of raw material. As the leading kernel processor, Vietnam has raised offers by roughly 0.10 to 0.15 dollars per pound in response to firmer RCN procurement costs.

Benchmark W320 kernels traded in the region of 2.67 to 2.84 euros per pound FOB Ho Chi Minh City, with W240 slightly higher at 2.84 to 2.94 euros per pound. Packers have moved cautiously, however, as United States buyers delay forward coverage amid tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The competitiveness of Vietnam exports continues to set the reference point for international pricing. With African processing capacity expanding in Ivory Coast and Tanzania, the geography of supply is gradually shifting, though Vietnam and India still anchor global kernel trade.

Near-Term Direction and Strategic Positioning

Across the major markets, the near-term path points sideways to firm. Indian offers are expected to stay soft on lower grades, Vietnamese competition on W320 and W240 is likely to persist, and European buyers retain a comfortable stance with a soft bias on brokens.

A steep decline appears unlikely, as buyers continue to step in on dips. A sustained rally is equally improbable without a clear demand recovery from Indian confectionery channels and a normalization of Gulf buying.

Trade sources have advised maintaining coverage at least through the second quarter, with safety stock in W320 and W240, given the tighter raw nut base and uncertain second-crop outcomes. Processors, by contrast, may face margin compression in standard grades as abundant near-term supply meets cautious demand.

The market has bottomed and entered recovery, but its trajectory now hinges on whether the smaller crop fully materializes and whether demand accelerates to meet it. For now, cashew prices remain anchored by tight raw nut fundamentals against a backdrop of restrained buying, a balance that favors firmness over any decisive move in either direction.