Canada’s Higher Pulses Output Adds Fresh Downward Pressure on Global Markets

Canada Drives the Latest Supply Shock

Canada’s latest crop estimates have once again surprised markets. Updated data from Statistics Canada (StatCan) shows significantly higher production of key pulses, limiting any near-term price recovery and pushing some prices lower.

Lentils Hit Record Highs

Canada’s lentil production for the 2025–26 marketing year (August–July) is now estimated at a record 3.36 million tonnes, sharply higher than the 2.97 million tonnes projected in September and well above last season’s 2.43 million tonnes. This also exceeds the previous record of 3.19 million tonnes in 2016–17.

As a result:

• Green lentil prices are hovering around $600 per tonne
• Russia is offering green lentils to India at $585, while Canada is quoting $635
• Red and green lentil prices have slipped 1–2% over the past month
• Red lentils have fallen below $550 per tonne, with Australia selling at $510 and Canada at $530

Peas Face Heavy Competition

StatCan has raised Canada’s dry pea output by 370,000 tonnes to 3.93 million tonnes, compared with 3.56 million tonnes estimated earlier. While this is below the record 4.59 million tonnes seen in 2020–21, it is still a sharp jump from last year’s 3 million tonnes.

Price competition has intensified:

• Canada, Russia, and Ukraine are all offering yellow peas to India at $345 per tonne
• China is sourcing yellow peas at around $305 per tonne
• Prices are firmly capped below $350 per tonne

Yellow peas continue to act as a substitute for black matpe and pigeon pea in India’s HoReCa segment, reinforcing the broader bearish sentiment.

Pigeon Pea and Black Matpe Also Under Pressure

Even though Canada does not produce pigeon pea, global supplies remain comfortable:

• Tanzania is offering at $550 per tonne
• Malawi at $540, Mozambique at $590
• Myanmar’s prices remain higher at $740

Black matpe prices are stabilising below $900 per tonne, with:

• Brazil’s Grade 1 quoted at $895
• Myanmar offering superior quality at $830

Chickpeas Add to the Surplus

Canada’s chickpea crop has seen one of the sharpest upward revisions. Production is now pegged at 481,600 tonnes, up from 331,000 tonnes estimated in September and well above last season’s 286,768 tonnes. This surpasses the earlier record of 455,000 tonnes set in 2001–02.

Although Canadian chickpeas are not heavily traded globally, the impact is visible:

• Australian chickpeas to India and Pakistan have slipped to $500 per tonne
• Buyers in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are actively building stocks at lower prices

Dry Beans See a Four-Year High

Dry bean production in Canada is now estimated at 437,950 tonnes, up from 352,000 tonnes projected earlier. This marks the highest output in four years, after 489,500 tonnes in 2020–21.

What Lies Ahead

Global pulse markets remain oversupplied. Additional pressure is expected from India’s winter harvest starting March, while Myanmar’s new black matpe crop arriving in February will further weigh on prices.

Conclusion

With Canada leading a wave of higher-than-expected pulses production and other major exporters reporting strong harvests, global markets are firmly supply-heavy. Prices are likely to remain capped in the coming months unless demand improves sharply or weather disrupts upcoming crops.